Current Ebola Strain Mutated, But Not More Deadly

The current Ebola outbreak is difficult enough, but scientists are worried about the one thing that could make it even worse: mutation. Cutting edge scientific research has revealed that the current strain of Ebola has not mutated or evolved since the last one, 40 years ago, in any way that makes it deadlier. Ebola is not gone, so continuous scientific tracking of its mutation is our best tool for fighting it in the future.

Computer analysis of the virus, completed at the University of Manchester, revealed that despite a large number of genetic mutations, Ebola is not more virulent than the last major outbreak. If the virus had mutated, it would likely be resistant to current treatment as well as potentially killing more rapidly.

Professor Simon Lovell states,"Using data from every outbreak since 1976 we were able to highlight what changes there had been in the RNA of the virus and then using specially developed tools predict the consequences of those changes. What we found was that whilst Ebola is mutating, it isn't evolving to the point of adapting to become more or less virulent. The function of the virus has remained the same over the past four decades which really surprised us. Unfortunately this does mean the Ebola virus that has now emerged on several occasions since the 1970s will very probably do so again."

For now, we can be thankful that the treatments and vaccines used in the current situation will likely be effective in the case of future outbreaks. In fact, armed with this information, future outbreaks may be kept from spreading with earlier interventions.

By using a computer program to analyze the data, Professor Lovell and his team were able to conduct their analysis without having to go to the site of the infection and risk exposure. They used existing data and combined it with real time information during the outbreak.

An interesting point that the team presents is that they also have to monitor for a time when Ebola becomes LESS potent. If Ebola becomes less potent, it will still be able to infect, but the infection may not manifest as quickly and the spread during the infectious period and widespread infection could occur. The virus could still be deadly, but pass more easily from person to person undetected until it is much later and symptoms begin to show. Even though the virus may be less deadly, it has the potential to be more widely spread and ultimately take more lives. This is yet another data point that needs to be monitored. Community response ultimately plays a very important role in containment.

Continuous monitoring is critical to ensure a fast, effective response during any future outbreaks. This is true of Ebola as well as other viruses. Ebola is sure to occur again, and with ongoing data of its mutation, we will more easily contain it. One day, hopefully, scientist will be able to follow this path and eradicate it entirely.